SPECIAL EDITION: Weather Pro Talks Climate, Forecasting
A conversation with Meteorologist Matt Noyes
This week, we’re dedicating the newsletter to a discussion of weather and climate with Meteorologist Matt Noyes of NBC10 and NECN in Boston. Matt and I worked together at NECN, and I was impressed by his adoption of new technologies. Our Q&A is substantive and more in-depth than our usual sessions. So this newsletter is focused on the Q&A.
(It’s my format. I get to break it.)
Matt Noyes, NBC10 Boston and NECN
How has meteorology changed since you started 20 years ago?
Without a doubt, technology is the big story of modern meteorology: from amazing advancements in measuring the weather to superior computing power for forecasting. At NBC10 Boston and NECN, alone, the changes are incredible: we designed and deployed our own mobile Doppler radar in our National Technology and Engineering Emmy Award-winning Storm Ranger.
Over the past eight years we have devoted time and resources with dozens of CPUs, myself and a full-time employee working with me to design our own, first-in-media, 10-day weather prediction system. The ability to see major weather events with increased lead time is better than ever, and the tools to monitor that weather when it arrives are unparalleled in the history of weather observation — which is the way it should be, but it's a joy to reap the benefits of that advancement.
Are you seeing evidence of climate change?
Absolutely. In New England, the signals of a changing climate are undeniable and in plain sight: from records kept at the Blue Hill Observatory in Milton, MA (our nation's oldest continuous weather observatory), to the extra month of growing season we see in the Boston area between spring's last frost and the return of frost in the fall, compared to the early and middle part of the 20th Century.
By the data, we've seen an increase in the annual average temperature of over three degrees Fahrenheit since the early 1900s, and the impacts of that can be intriguing: a warmer climate has resulted in increased average snowfall when calculated over several years, including nearly a 30% increase in snow amounts during March. Our beaches have always been subject to erosion and shifting, but the modern twist to that has been the steadily rising sea level.
What’s the hardest part of predicting the weather?
There are two major challenges in broadcast meteorology, a term I've always joked could be an oxymoron. The meteorological challenge involves properly weighing each nuance for the impact it may have on the forecast, which can compound, depending on the feature. The broadcasting challenge is relaying that information in a clear, concise, and simplified method that makes sense to nearly everyone.
There is still a lot of room for advancement in both sectors. If you were to pin me down on the most challenging type of weather to predict, I'd have to say the placement and timing of warm-season showers and thunderstorms. I hate leaving it at "scattered showers," as that helps almost nobody, so a big part of the NBC Forecast System I built revolves around the chance of precipitation and exact timing and placement, in an attempt to deliver something of better quality and reliability to our viewers.
You’re covering New England weather - a notoriously tricky gig. What unique challenges do you face in this region?
The ocean is the key to nearly all of New England's tricks. In the summer, it represents a mass of cool water and air that can cut the legs out beneath thunderstorms, weaken hurricanes to a whimper or turn a sea breeze to blow a forecast by 20°F or more.
In the winter, it's the wealth of warmth from which a ten-degree change in wind direction on the compass can mean the difference between a blockbuster snowstorm and water down the drain. If you can nail down the ocean's exact influence, you're a huge step ahead on the forecast.
How do you feel about weather apps? Are they changing your job?
Without question! On the downside, there's really no accountability or verification of the weather app forecasts. At least on NBC10 Boston we know we are the most accurate because it's measured daily and certified annually by an independent company, WeatheRate, which keeps track of all stations in town.
There's no such measure for weather apps, so the first challenge is users are getting vastly different forecasts of widely ranging quality and methodology. Additionally, there's no human-relatable explanation or context for the forecast, so a 30% chance of rain could be a sun shower or a raging storm. The upside to this is, ever the optimist, I do believe there is a great opportunity for broadcast meteorologists — now, more than ever, the door is open to intelligent insight that helps the viewer understand what the atmosphere is likely to do and, perhaps more importantly, what to expect if things don't go exactly to plan.
Tell us your favorite weather coverage story.
”Favorite” is a tricky descriptor, but my favorite thing to do in this business is convey a forecast or weather information that changes someone's life for the better. That's been my goal from when I was studying meteorology in college and hasn't changed: deliver the best forecast possible, to the greatest number of people possible, in order to make lives better.
Perhaps the weather event I was most able to directly make that positive difference was what became dubbed the “Springfield Tornado of June 2011.” The outbreak of six tornadoes in our NECN New England coverage area on that June 1st included the strongest and longest tornado to hit the Commonwealth since the Worcester Tornado of 1953.
I followed the storm on NECN with live radar as it tracked east out of Eastern New York State, sharing evidence of storm rotation with our viewers along the way, though it was not yet a tornado. As rotation increased, I took us into live, continuous coverage to warn a tornado would be possible at any time.
Soon after, I relayed live viewer reports of a tornado on the ground in Westfield, MA, before any government tornado warning had been issued. Hours of continuous coverage followed, during which I tracked tornadoes to street-level, advising certain streets to seek shelter in the basement and clearing others when the threat had passed, with a steady flow of real-time reports from our viewers.
It wasn't until the days following the tornadoes that I realized I was the only one doing that type of coverage, and the difference it made. One viewer even sent me their helmet camera video, watching our coverage in the basement, then looking out the window at the funnel approaching, before it moved through their neighborhood.
As a lifelong New Englander, I hate that devastating weather events hit our beloved communities at all but, given that won't change, I am thankful for the moments when I can make lives better with my forecasts.
REMOTE NOTES
Newsletter #40
Founder/Writer: Steve Safran
Editor: John Cockrell
Copyright 2023